Vulnerable Pakistan to face up to plucky USA without injured Imad Wasim

USA go into this game high on confidence, having shown heart against Canada and recently upsetting Bangladesh. Pakistan could hardly say the same

Danyal Rasool05-Jun-2024

Match details

USA vs Pakistan
Dallas, 10.30am local time

Big picture

“Pakistan the heavyweight, the USA the plucky underdog” isn’t a phrase that rolls off the tongue neatly enough, but those are the sobriquets thrust upon these two sides when they take each other on in Dallas. Cricketing matters aside, this game has enough of a tinge of off-field spice, but add to that an American uptick in form combined with a vulnerable Pakistan unit and the cricketing matters provide intrigue of their own.USA’s win over Canada in the first game neatly illustrates the danger the hosts pose. The temperament the hosts showed, turning what appeared a near-certain losing position into a comfortable victory, is emblematic of a side high on confidence following on from their stunning 2-1 series win over Bangladesh in the build-up to the tournament. The relative familiarity with the venue also gives USA an added edge, having played against Canada at the same ground.Pakistan meanwhile, have struggled to get a proper training session in, let alone an actual game, warm-up or official. Rain in Dallas for much of the past week forced Pakistan to move two practice sessions to makeshift indoor facilities, and instead of arriving early to acclimatise, Pakistan spent the past three weeks playing T20I series in Ireland and the UK. They didn’t exactly showcase a fearsome side in search of a title, as inconsistent performances saw them lose one of the three games to Ireland, and comfortably beaten in both completed matches against England.Pakistan’s woes have been compounded by the confirmed injury to Imad Wasim, specifically brought back to the squad for his US and Caribbean experience. In addition, as the final game against England made crystal clear, the opening combination of Mohammad Rizwan and Babar Azam appears their only viable option, meaning much of the experimentation in the build-up over the past five months has not borne fruit. Several players severely struggling for form means there are points of weakness dotted throughout the order, with Saim Ayub, Azam Khan and Shadab Khan particularly beleaguered at present.If the tendency to hop about from triumph to disaster without warning is a characteristically Pakistani trait, belief and self-confidence is unabashedly American. You couldn’t set a better scene or plot more amenable circumstances for an upset, or at the very least a Texan thriller.

Form guide

United States of America: WLWWW (last five completed matches, most recent first)
Pakistan: LLWWL

In the spotlight

Aaron Jones would be a problem for any bowling side, but he matches up particularly well against Pakistan. Jones’ takedown of Canada’s pace and spin bowlers in the middle overs places a lot of pressure on Haris Rauf, Pakistan’s most in-form bowler in that phase. With Imad out and Shadab severely out of nick, there remains the potential for Jones to lead a middle-overs onslaught similar to the one that saw the US storm past Canada in the tournament opener.As the final T20I against England last week made brutally plain, there is no hiding place for Azam Khan. After a shocker of a game with both bat and gloves, he was singled out for the ire of Pakistan’s media and fans. Some of it was justified, the rest way over the top. But it is obvious Pakistan are struggling to answer the question of what to do with him. Having, in part, selected him because of his recent CPL pedigree, dropping him leaves them light on options for lower-order death-overs hitting. Selecting a player that low on confidence, though, brings its own conundrums, not least whether to give him the gloves when Mohammad Rizwan – a stratospherically better keeper – is a confirmed starter.

Team news

USA have no injury concerns following their win over Canada, and with the hosts playing at the same venue again, they are unlikely to tinker with a winning combination.USA: 1 Steven Taylor, 2 Monank Patel (capt), 3 Andries Gous (wk), 4 Aaron Jones, 5 Nitish Kumar, 6 Corey Anderson, 7 Harmeet Singh, 8 Shadley van Schalkwyk, 9 Jasdeep Singh, 10 Ali Khan, 11 Saurabh NetravalkarImad has been unable to shake off a side strain that kept him out of Pakistan’s final T20I against England last week, meaning balancing the side is a problem for Pakistan. It likely means Shadab will keep his place for all-round potential, while Babar and Rizwan go back up top.Pakistan: 1 Mohammad Rizwan 2 Babar Azam 3 Usman Khan 4 Fakhar Zaman 5 Azam Khan 6 Iftikhar Ahmed 7 Shadab Khan 7 8 Shaheen Afridi 9 Haris Rauf 10 Mohammad Amir 11 Abrar Ahmed

Pitch and conditions

Rain sprayed Dallas in the week leading up to the tournament, but has for the large part stayed away since the World Cup began. That should continue to be the case on Thursday, with a full game expected.The wicket offered early seam movement in each of the first two games with decent bounce and carry, with the opening game – held at this venue – throwing up the two highest scores of the tournament so far.

Stats and trivia

  • Pakistan’s attempt to break up Babar Azam and Mohammad Rizwan failed on just about every count. Saim Ayub scored 229 runs in 15 T20I innings as opener, at an average of 15.26 and a strike rate of 126.51. That average as well as strike rate is lower than either Babar or Rizwan’s as opener since January 2022
  • Haris Rauf is five wickets away from becoming just the second Pakistani – after Shadab Khan – to reach 100 T20I wickets
  • Of the 23 sixes Aaron Jones has struck in 25 T20I innings, 10 came in his innings against Canada in the World Cup opener

Quotes

“Certain things are outside your control. We can’t control the weather. In the circumstances, we used the facilities available to us, with the batters and bowlers training indoors. Our team drills also took place indoors, so we’re just trying to utilise the best possible options we have.”
“You know, it’s T20. Once we have good 30-40 minutes on the field, you never know. We can take the game away.”

ميرور: ما حدث في مباراة ليفربول وأتلتيكو مدريد أثبت صحة كلام محمد صلاح

أثبت إهدار هوجو إيكتيكي مهاجم ليفربول لفرصة كبيرة ضد أتلتيكو مدريد على ملعب أنفيلد في دوري أبطال أوروبا صحة ما قاله النجم المصري محمد صلاح.

وكان ليفربول حقق فوزًا مثيرًا ضد العملاق الإسباني بثلاثة أهداف لهدفين يوم الأربعاء الماضي في أولى مبارياتهما في دوري أبطال أوروبا هذا الموسم.

وكان ماركوس يورينتي قد سجل هدفين لأتلتيكو مدريد ليتعادل للفريق الضيف، لكن قائد ليفربول فيرجيل فان دايك ارتقى عالياً ليسجل هدف الفوز في شباك يان أوبلاك في الدقيقة 92 ليحسم المباراة.

وضغط ليفربول بعد هدف فان دايك بقوة لتسجيل الهدف الرابع قبل صافرة النهاية، ومرر سوبوسلاي كرة إلى محمد صلاح الذي انطلق بسرعة على الجهة اليمنى ومررها عرضية إلى إيكتيكي ليسجل الهدف من مسافة قريبة ولكنه أضاع الفرصة بغرابة.

أقرأ أيضاً.. لاعب مانشستر سيتي: محمد صلاح أصعب خصم واجهته في مسيرتي

ونشرت صحيفة “ميرور” البريطانية أن إيكتيكي أضاع فرصة تسجيل هدف بعد أن أحرز بالفعل هذا الموسم ثلاثة أهداف حتى الآن، على الرغم من أنه كان حاضراً في اللحظة المناسبة لاستقبال تمريرة صلاح، إلا أنه ربما قد أخطأ في تقدير سرعة المصري في التعامل مع الكرة.

وتفسر هذه الفرصة تصريح محمد صلاح في وقت سابق حيث أكدت ما قاله بإنه لا يزال يفتقر للتفاهم الكبير في الملعب مع إيكتيكي، ونظراً لأن الثنائي لم يلعبا معاً إلا خمس مباريات فقط ولكن ذلك لا يثير القلق في بداية الموسم الحالي.

وقال صلاح صاحب الـ33 عاماً في وقت سابق إنه سيتعين التحلي بالصبر عندما يتعلق الأمر ببناء كيمياء مع زملائه الجدد في الفريق خاصة هوجو إيكتيكي.

ولم يقلل جلوس إيكتيكي على مقاعد البدلاء ضد أتلتيكو مدريد من الدعم الذي حظى به من جماهير ملعب أنفيلد، التي قامت بالغناء للفرنسي أثناء الإحماء وعند دخوله في الشوط الثاني.

وقرر إيكتيكي في لحظة مميزة بالنسبة له أن يتبادل قميصه مع أنطوان جريزمان لاعب أتلتيكو مدريد، والذي اعتزل اللعب الدولي العام الماضي، وكتب بعد نهاية المباراة عبر حسابه على إنستجرام وهو يحمل القميص مشيراً إلى مواطنه: “أسطورة”.

Leeds seriously looking to sign £25m star after Meslier's Swansea mistake

Leeds United are now seriously interested in signing an “excellent” £25 million ace to replace Illan Meslier should they be promoted to the Premier League, according to a new report.

Farke remains confident Leeds' promotion will be sealed

It looked as though it was going to be another successful weekend for the Whites on Saturday afternoon, as they were closing in on another three points to move them a step closer to promotion. However, a mistake by goalkeeper Meslier was punished not once but twice, as his fumble allowed Harry Darling to equalise at 1-1 and then Zan Vipotnik’s shot in the 96th minute snuck under the Leeds goalkeeper.

It is not the first time that Meslier has cost his side all three points this season, but despite the fact the Whites have only won one of their last five matches, their worst form of this campaign, Daniel Farke remains confident that Leeds will still win promotion to the Premier League.

“We have gone many, many steps, and right now it’s the final step. That’s always the most difficult,” the boss said this weekend.

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“There’s never a guarantee of success, but we have been in this situation before. I know how tricky it sometimes is to lead from the front, but also what is necessary to bring it over the line, and we will try everything to make sure the lads have the best chance to make the final step. If you ask me right now, I’m 100% convinced that next season we will play in the Premier League.”

Leeds looking to replace Meslier with Southampton star Ramsdale

Given Farke is confident that his side will be a top-flight team next season, it may be no surprise to see plans are already being worked on for the summer, and a new goalkeeper seems to be high on the agenda. According to TEAMtalk, Leeds have now placed Southampton goalkeeper Aaron Ramsdale on their transfer shortlist should promotion be sealed.

The report states that the Whites are now seriously looking to sign a new number one this summer, given the mistakes that Meslier has made this season, despite Farke’s public backing of the Frenchman. Meslier’s contract expires in 2026, so Leeds will have a decision to make on his long-term future, and this summer could be the only realistic chance to cash in and upgrade.

However, Leeds are not the only team interested in signing Ramsdale, as AFC Bournemouth are also keeping an eye on things and could make a move once the Saints are relegated.

Newcastle United are also fans of the goalkeeper and could move for him as they eye a long-term replacement for Nick Pope. The also adds that Ramsdale has a relegation clause in his contract, and any club wanting to sign him will have to offer him the guarantee of football, as he wants to compete for the England number one spot.

Apps

174

Goals conceded

262

Clean sheets

40

Leeds’ chances of signing Ramsdale, who cost the Saints £25 million in the summer, do rest on them securing promotion to the Premier League, as the Englishman is looking to remain in the top flight. Despite the fact that Southampton have been terrible in the Premier League this season, Ramsdale has impressed many, with former England goalkeeper Joe Hart labelling his performances as “absolutely excellent”.

Agni Chopra smashes first-class record with centuries in first four games

Agni Chopra has become the first batter to score centuries in his first four first-class games after making his debut for Mizoram in the Ranji Trophy Plate League earlier this month. Chopra, 25, is the son of film critic Anupama Chopra and filmmaker Vidhu Vinod Chopra, who recently made the popular movie (KC Cariappa) and Mohit Jangra,” he told PTI. “They are inclusive and welcoming and I never felt like an outsider. I have been taught a few Mizo words and phrases and I don’t feel in a vastly different place.”Chopra admits that moving from Mumbai to Mizoram in the domestic circuit would not have been a lateral move and the bowling attacks in the Plate League would not be the same. While the top 32 teams in the domestic circuit play in four groups of the Elite League, six other teams, five of which are from the north-east region, feature in the Plate League.He says his current aim is to help Mizoram qualify for the Plate League final, which will promote them to the Elite League next season.”People will say what they have to say but, at the end of the day, it’s your performance and there are lot many players who are playing in the same division and not scoring that many runs. The standard is same for everyone.”I think I am trying to be in present and my aim is to take Mizoram to Elite division. If we are in Elite division, then there is nothing to think about in terms of quality of bowling and I will play for Mizoram.”

Chopra had decided not to follow in the footsteps of his father, who has been directing and writing Hindi movies for over 30 years and has delivered a number of hits like , and its sequel .”So I have been asked this question from childhood that will you go into movies but I never thought I would ever be in movies,” he said. “I never thought that, ‘oh, I should get in because my dad makes movies and it will be an easy avenue for me’.”I was never interested in movies. I mean I love watching movies and have a great time but it was never my passion.”Chopra says the career advice his father instead gave him was to pick anything and strive to be the best in it.”My dad told me and my sister when we were younger what his father told him: ‘. (If you want to become a cobbler, be the best cobbler in your street).”He gave us freedom to do what we wanted but told us to try to be the absolute best. Talent can only take you that far, as the rest depends on the work you do and I saw that in his movies. The amount of work my father and my mother put in their professions, I saw that it rubbed off on me.”

Rocchiccioli and Paris set up vital victory chance for Western Australia

The home side had a productive day amid stoppages as they push to get into the Shield final

AAP02-Mar-2024Western Australia 310 (Goodwin 115, Whiteman 79, Bartlett 5-64) and 16 for 0 lead Queensland 170 (Wildermuth 41, Rocchiccioli 4-54) by 156 runsWestern Australia’s bid for a hat-trick of Sheffield Shield titles was back on track after producing a sizzling bowling display against Queensland at the WACA Ground.In reply to WA’s competitive 310, Queensland were skittled for 170 in 54.5 overs in overcast and windy conditions on Saturday. WA reached 16 for 0 in their second innings before nearby lightning forced players off the ground late in the day.Related

  • Goodwin shines with maiden hundred as Bartlett also stars

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It capped a stop-start day in which rain interrupted play several times as Queensland slumped to 54 for 4 and 108 for 7 in the tricky conditions.Spinner Corey Rocchiccioli played a key role in cleaning up the tail, while Joel Paris continued his hot form with figures of 2 for 15 off 12 overs. Charlie Stobo and Cameron Gannon were also among the wickets.WA had slipped to third spot on the ladder after posting two draws and a loss from their previous three Shield encounters. But with second-placed Victoria on track for defeat against ladder leaders Tasmania, WA now have an excellent chance to soar into second spot ahead of the final round. WA take on Victoria at Junction Oval in the final round, meaning their fate will be in their own hands if they can secure victory here.Cameron Bancroft and Sam Whiteman will be aiming to form a big second-innings partnership when play resumes on Sunday.Queensland’s top order struggled in the overcast conditions, with Paris snaring the breakthrough when he found the edge of Bryce Street for a 14-ball duck. Gannon produced the highlight of the day when he pulled off a diving one-handed catch off his own bowling to dismiss Angus Lovell.Jack Clayton, Jimmy Peirson and Jack Wildermuth all made starts, but none was able to go on with the job as wickets fell at regular intervals.Queensland added 46 runs for their last two wickets, but WA were well and truly in the box seat with a lead of 156.

World Cup winner at Wrexham? Why Thomas Muller move won't happen as Bayern Munich legend is tipped to head for MLS over free agent move to the EFL

Wrexham are, with Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney on board, the most ambitious of outfits, but a move for Thomas Muller is considered impossible.

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  • Hollywood co-owners bankrolling Red Dragons
  • World Cup winner leaving Allianz Arena
  • Expected to continue career in the United States
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  • WHAT HAPPENED?

    The Red Dragons are in the process of piecing together recruitment plans after seeing a historic third successive promotion lift them into the Championship. Hollywood co-owners continue to make the funds available that allow marquee additions to be sought.

  • Advertisement

  • Getty/GOAL

    THE BIGGER PICTURE

    The Welsh outfit have already been linked with the likes of Jamie Vardy and Tom Cairney, while being urged to consider an approach for England international striker Callum Wilson, with every corner of the transfer market being explored.

  • DID YOU KNOW?

    World Cup winner Muller is among those about to hit free agency, as his contract at Bayern Munich runs down, but the legendary 35-year-old forward is expected to favour a move to MLS over any potential challenge in the EFL.

  • Getty

    WHAT DIETMAR HAMANN SAID

    Ex-Bayern midfielder Dietmar Hamann has told : "Thomas Muller is 35 now and his game time was very limited in the last few weeks. But he came on against Inter in the quarters, scored a goal, so he still knows where the goal is.

    "He's got a few offers and clubs that he thinks are outside the box, he said he had offers where he thought that's a bit ambitious, but that he liked them. Moving to England though at this age won’t be an option, so I can’t see him at Wrexham.

    "The most likely destination is probably the MLS. They've got a partner club with LAFC, Bayern Munich, and the way he is talking I think he is going to carry on playing."

Darcie Brown ruled out of remaining West Indies ODIs with hamstring injury

Fast bowler Darcie Brown has been ruled out of the remainder of the ODI series against West Indies with a hamstring injury which also potentially leaves her in doubt for the start of the WBBL.Brown left the field after three overs in the first one-dayer in Brisbane, where she claimed the key with of Stafanie Taylor, with tightness in her left hamstring. She had previously produced a matchwinning 3 for 20 in the deciding T20I.”Brown will undergo further assessment in the coming days and an update on her availability provided in due course,” a CA statement said.Related

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Heather Graham, the Tasmania allrounder, has been called in the squad for the two matches in Melbourne which conclude West Indies’ tour. She will arrive on Wednesday having played against ACT in the WNCL.Australia may consider altering the balance of their attack in Brown’s absence by recalling Jess Jonassen who missed the first ODI having been dropped for the final T20I.With Kim Garth, Megan Schutt, Annabel Sutherland and Tahlia McGrath there are plenty of seam-bowling options in the side. Ellyse Perry previously said she may not be able to bowl before the WBBL following her knee injury in Ireland and now her return with the ball may extend further.”The start [of the WBBL] will probably be pushing it, but hopefully not too far into the season,” Perry said. “I’ve really enjoyed working with Scott Prestwidge, our bowling coach.”We were doing some really great stuff over in England in the nets and it was sort of a bit of a bummer to have to cut that over the last couple of months. I’m really looking forward to the rest of summer and hopefully being able to contribute with the ball.”Adelaide Strikers, the defending WBBL champions, will have a close eye on Brown’s fitness with their tournament getting underway on October 21 against Melbourne Stars.Australia lead the ODI series 1-0 having bowled out West Indies for 83 at Allan Border Field.

As good as Nwaneri: Arsenal could unleash "insane" teen for the first time

Arsenal have been hit with several huge injury blows in recent weeks that have left Mikel Arteta with little to choose from when selecting his attacking options in matches.

Bukayo Saka, Kai Havertz, Gabriel Jesus, and Gabriel Martinelli are all out injured for the foreseeable future, and the Gunners did not swoop to bring in any reinforcements during the January transfer window.

Gabriel Jesus

ACL

August 31st 2025

21

Bukayo Saka

Hamstring

April 1st 2025

18

Kai Havertz

Hamstring

June 30th 2025

14

Gabriel Martinelli

Hamstring

Unknown

1

Takehiro Tomiyasu

Knee

Unknown

29

Whilst it remains to be seen how the London giants will resolve their issue in the number nine position, the emergence of Ethan Nwaneri has helped to deal with the loss of Saka to injury.

Arsenal's Ethan Nwaneri celebrates scoring their fifth goal with teammates

The 17-year-old whiz, who turns 18 in March, has emerged as a genuine first-team option for Arteta this season, with some eye-catching performances on the right flank.

Ethan Nwaneri's emergence this season

Nwaneri made his Premier League debut at the age of 15 years and 181 days against Brentford in September 2022, which made him the youngest player in the history of the division.

Two seasons later the England U19 international has become a regular in the senior set-up. He has made 24 appearances for Arsenal in all competitions this season, including 15 outings in the top-flight.

Appearances (starts)

15 (4)

xG

0.74

Goals

3

xA

1.01

Assists

1

As you can see in the table above, Nwaneri has produced four direct goal contributions in four starts in the Premier League, with his latest being an assist for Mikel Merino in the 2-0 win over Leicester at the weekend.

The teenage sensation, who has scored seven goals in all competitions, may soon have another incredible teenage talent alongside him in the first-team, as Arsenal have 15-year-old Max Dowman rapidly rising through the ranks.

Arsenal could hit gold with Max Dowman

Arteta, as he already has with Nwaneri, could hit the jackpot by unearthing the young attacking midfielder in the coming seasons, as he is emerging as an incredible prospect who could be as good as the current first-team academy graduate.

Back in November, Fabrizio Romano reported that the then-14-year-old was already training with the first-team at Arsenal, and that the club consider him to be a “huge” talent.

In the same month, analyst Ben Mattinson claimed that Dowman has stood out at U19 and U21 level, despite his incredibly young age, and described his talent as “insane”, whilst he added that it would not be a surprise for him to make his debut this season and beat Nwaneri’s Premier League record.

The 15-year-old starlet has already made his U21 debut and has racked up three goals and two assists in eight appearances for the U18s this season, which shows that the youngster is starring well above his age bracket.

Dowman is shining in the academy and has clearly caught Arteta’s attention, hence why he has been in first-team training as young as 14, which is why he could be as big of a talent as Nwaneri, who has emerged in the senior set-up at the age of 17.

Arsenal now make contact for "composed" £50m striker with 20 league goals

The Gunners have made the first move to sign a striker who is the top scorer in his league this season.

ByDominic Lund Feb 16, 2025

It is now down to the manager to plot the perfect pathway to the first-team for the left-footed playmaker, who is yet to make his senior bow, to ensure that the club can strike gold with the teenage ace, who could eventually become a regular for the Spanish tactician in the future.

بوركينا فاسو تهزم إفريقيا الوسطي برباعية في كأس أمم إفريقيا للمحليين

خطف منتخب بوركينا فاسو فوزًا من إفريقيا الوسطى بنتيجة 4-2، في المباراة التي جمعت بينهما ضمن بطولة كأس أمم إفريقيا للمحليين 2024،

وأقيمت المباراة بين بوركينا فاسو وإفريقيا الوسطى على أرضية ملعب بنجامين ماكابا في دار السلام، ضمن مباريات الجولة الثانية للمجموعة الثانية من البطولة القارية.

وافتتح بابوس أوتارا التسجيل لبوركينا فاسو في الدقيقة 11، لكن سيدني تشيبيندا أدرك التعادل لإفريقيا الوسطى في الدقيقة 15.

وفي الشوط الثاني، سجل عبدول عباس جيرو الهدف الثاني لبوركينا فاسو من ركلة جزاء في الدقيقة 61، قبل أن يعزز باتريك مالو التقدم بالهدف الثالث في الدقيقة 78.

طالع | منتخب السنغال يحقق فوزه الأول في كأس أمم إفريقيا للمحليين على حساب نيجيريا

وأضاف عبدول باجويان الهدف الرابع في الدقيقة 84، فيما قلص أنجي زومارا الفارق لإفريقيا الوسطى بهدف في الدقيقة 90+5.

بهذا الفوز، رفع منتخب بوركينا فاسو رصيده إلى 3 نقاط في المركز الثاني، محققًا فوزه الأول في دور المجموعات، بينما يقبع منتخب إفريقيا الوسطى بالمركز الأخير دون نقاط.

Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Fade Paul Skenes vs. Dodgers)

Wednesday is always an exciting day of betting action in Major League Baseball with a full serving of games, including day baseball.

However, all eyes will be on Pittsburgh Wednesday night as No. 1 overall pick Paul Skenes is slated to face the vaunted Los Angeles Dodgers offense. Can Skenes keep his momentum rolling with his stiffest test yet?

I'm not so sure.

Check out my betting preview for every big league game below!

Braves vs. Red Sox Prediction and Pick

Pick: Red Sox (-110)

The results are middling for Nick Pivetta, a 4.08 ERA in seven starts, but the underlying metrics are enticing, as he is striking out 30% of batters with a career low walk rate of just five percent. 

In a projected coin flip, I’ll take the home team. 

Cardinals vs. Astros Prediction and Pick

Pick: Astros (-165)

St. Louis starter Miles Mikolas’ inability to strike batters out, a meager 18%, is going to be trouble against an Astros team that is the best hitting team in the big leagues at home (.802 OPS). 

Give me the home favorite. 

Reds vs. Rockies Prediction and Pick

Pick: Reds (-125)

Cincinnati is swinging a sweet bat right now, fifth in OPS over the last 15 days, per MLB.com, and now faces Dakota Hudson of the Rockies, who has a ton of red flags on the mound. 

Hudson ranks in the bottom 10 percentile in strikeout rate and chase percentage as well as xBA, per MLB Statcast.

Giants vs. Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick

Pick: Giants (+105)

Jordan Montgomery hasn’t been the same since helping pace the Rangers’ to a World Series title last fall. He is in the eighth percentile in terms of strikeout rate and sixth percentile in xBA. 

Against a Giants team that is 12th in OPS against lefties this season, and has its most effective pitcher in Jordan Hicks on the mound (2.70 ERA), I’ll lean towards the road underdog. 

Mets vs. Nationals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Mets (-140)

Luis Severino has revived his career with the Mets, posting a 3.52 ERA, and New York’s shaky offense gets a reprieve against Patrick Corbin, who has a 5.83 ERA. 

I see little reason to take a flier on the Nationals with Corbin on the mound, the team is 4-8 when he starts. 

Brewers vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick

Pick: Brewers (+155)

Milwaukee has lost both games in Philadelphia by a combined three runs, and now face Aaron Nola, who has posted a 3.03 ERA on the year. 

Aaron Ashby will counter, who struggled in his first start of the year, allowing four earned runs in less than four innings. I’m willing to give the southpaw a pass for that one and will back him as a big underdog with the Brewers top five hitting offense in terms of OPS behind him. 

Rays vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick

Pick: Rays (-120)

Zach Eflin returns from the injured list to face a bottom five offense in the Marlins, a great landing spot for him after showing some upside in the first handful of weeks of the season. 

Eflin has walked fewer than two percent of batters this season through 10 starts, but needs to raise his strikeout rate back above 20% as he is sitting at the lowest mark of his career since 2019 (17.9%). 

Against the Marlins, a healthy Eflin should be in line for a quality start and for the Rays to snag a road win. 

Royals vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick

Pick: Guardians (-125)

Cleveland is in good shape to build on its AL Central lead on Wednesday against Kansas City with Nick Sandlin on the mound. 

The right hander has found his control, posting a career best walk rate of sub-nine percent while striking out 28% of batters. He ranks in the 98th percentile in terms of xBA with a nasty set of offspeed pitches that includes a sinker and a slider. 

This is also partially a fade of Royals’ starter Brady Singer, who has 2.63 ERA but is due a ton of regression with an xERA of 4.35. 

Dodgers vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick

Pick: Dodgers (+100)

Paul Skenes is getting a ton of respect by being favored over the Dodgers, but I can’t trust the Pirates to take advantage and close out a win with a bullpen ERA of 3.95 since the end of May. 

Skenes has passed every test with flying colors thus far, but the Pirates are getting too much respect in this game against a Dodgers team that is still the best lineup in baseball. 

Twins vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick

Pick: Twins (+155)

Carlos Rodon is a major concern for the Yankees pitching staff, far from his Cy Young candidate level in 2022. 

He is striking out 22% of batters, right around the big league average while allowing a ton of hard contact (23rd percentile). With his inability to get past hitters anymore with what was a nasty curveball, Rodon has seen his underlying metrics balloon despite solid surface level marks. 

Rodon has an ERA of 3.09 but an xERA of 4.32. 

Against a Twins team that is 11th in OPS against left handers, I’ll back the visitors to pull an upset. 

Orioles vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Pick

Pick: Orioles (+105)

Jose Berrios is untrustworthy against a high quality lineup like the Orioles. 

The veteran righty has been lucky all season, striking out fewer than 20% of batters while allowing hard contact on 44% of balls in play (19th percentile), but only a 2.79 ERA. Meanwhile, his xERA is up to 4.15. 

Tigers vs. Rangers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Rangers (-135)

Kenta Maeda’s ERA may be a bit unlucky, but part of that is due to his diminished velocity. 

He is striking out a career low 17% of batters and has been unable to keep runners from crossing home, posting a 6.25 ERA despite a 4.84 xERA. 

I can’t trust him to find his form against a Texas team that has an edge at the plate and a resurgent Jose Urena, who has limited his walk rate to eight percent and has posted a 3.75 ERA. 

White Sox vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick

Pick: White Sox (+150)

The Cubs continue to be untrustworthy in the Windy City Showdown, losing at over -300 favorites on Tuesday. 

The team will send out Jameson Taillon on Wednesday as big favorites, but I’ll fade the Cubbies again. 

Taillon is striking out a career low 15% of batters and has an xERA of 3.56, far higher than his surface level ERA of 2.84. 

Meanwhile, the White Sox counter with its most effective pitcher this season in Erick Fedde, who has an ERA of 3.12 on an increased strikeout rate (career high near-23%). 

Over the last 13 games, the Cubs are 26th in OPS and the White Sox are 29th. The gap isn’t that much between the two teams at the moment. 

Padres vs. Angels Prediction and Pick

Pick: Padres (-150)

Dylan Cease has joined the Padres and performed at an incredibly high level, posting a 3.42 ERA with a 30% strikeout rate, setting up nicely against an Angels team that lacks the pitching prowess to match. 

Jose Soriano is on a run of three straight starts pitching six innings or more, but I expect a short outing for him against a Padres team that can make hard contact against Soriano, who is in the eighth percentile in that metric. 

Mariners vs. Athletics Prediction and Pick

Pick: Athletics (+135)

A’s rookie Joey Estes has some upside, striking out 23% of batters with a sub-seven percent walk rate, but his ERA has been crushed by hard contact, resulting in a 6.10 ERA, but his xERA is at 3.46. 

I’ll take a flier on the home underdog. 

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